monte - Blog - Global Risk Community2024-03-28T21:56:22Zhttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/feed/tag/monteMy Newly Published Bookhttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/my-book-risk-based-management-in-the-world-of-threats-and2015-07-02T22:30:00.000Z2015-07-02T22:30:00.000ZRUFRAN C. FRAGOhttps://globalriskcommunity.com/members/RUFRANCFRAGO<div><p>Hi All,</p><p> </p><p>The paperback and Kindle edition of the book "Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective" is now available in Amazon. Copy and paste the following on your browser. You can grab a copy now.</p><p> </p><ul><li><a href="http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI">http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI</a></li><li><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0104OFUDI/ref=rdr_kindle_ext_tmb" target="_blank">http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0104OFUDI/ref=rdr_kindle_ext_tmb</a></li><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risk-based-management-world-threats-opportunities-rufran?trk=prof-post">https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risk-based-management-world-threats-opportunities-rufran?trk=prof-post</a></li></ul><p> </p><p> </p><p>Cheers,</p><p> </p><p> </p><p><b>RUFRAN C. FRAGO, P.Eng, PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®</b></p><p></p></div>Monte Carlo working examplehttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/monte-carlo-working-example2012-11-07T17:41:34.000Z2012-11-07T17:41:34.000ZMartin Davieshttps://globalriskcommunity.com/members/MartinDavies92<div><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">The effort today is to develop a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel that works for operational risk losses rather than market or credit risk, where the technique is so often found. The objective is to build a fully working Microsoft Excel model which isn't just statistical theory but actually exemplifies the Monte Carlo simulation process in practice.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">Click here to review and download the <span style="color:#0000ff;"><a href="http://causalcapital.blogspot.com/2012/11/monte-carlo-example.html" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0000ff;">Monte Carlo example</span></a></span></span></p></div>Application of Pascal’s Triangular Plus Monte Carlo Analysis to Design a Strategic Planhttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/application-of-pascal-s-triangular-plus-monte-carlo-analysis-to2012-08-31T13:45:06.000Z2012-08-31T13:45:06.000ZGholamreza Soleimanihttps://globalriskcommunity.com/members/GholamrezaSoleimani<div><div>Following to article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” posted on link: <a href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/02/fuzzy-delphi-method-to-design-strategic.html">http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/02/fuzzy-delphi-method-to-design-strategic.html</a>, the purpose of this article is to utilize a new simulation model to design the <a title="Powered by Text-Enhance" href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2012-08-23T23:19:00-07:00#">strategic plan</a> instead of FDM where I had already depicted this simulation model in article of “Application of Pascal’s Triangular Plus Monte Carlo Analysis to Appraise the Wisdom of Crowds” on link: <a href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/05/application-of-pascals-triangular-plus_08.html">http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/05/application-of-pascals-triangular-plus_08.html</a>. The most important finding is to show the advantages of this simulation model to design the strategic plan in which I have compared the results with FDM.</div><div>The template of this article is the same “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan”.<br /><br /></div><div><b>Methodology</b><br /><b><br /></b></div><div>As you remember, I started an example of Driving Forces (DF) in article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” where I chose 14 experts to respond my survey <a title="Powered by Text-Enhance" href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2012-08-23T23:19:00-07:00#">questionnaire</a> about the ranking of driving forces issues as follows:</div><div> </div><table border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div><b>DF</b></div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div><b> P</b></div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div><b> M</b></div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div><b> O</b></div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">5.79</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.36</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF3</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.36</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF4</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.43</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF5</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.14</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF6</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.29</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF7</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.14</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF8</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.29</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF9</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.07</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF10</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.29</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF11</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.86</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF12</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.36</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF13</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.00</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">9</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF14</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.43</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /><br /></div><div>Now, I am willing to use this simulation model step by step instead of FDM as follows:</div><div>You can review the continuation of this article on my blow as follows:</div><div><a href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/">http://emfps.blogspot.com</a></div></div>Monte Carlo and Loss Datahttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/monte-carlo-and-loss-data2012-05-11T03:59:49.000Z2012-05-11T03:59:49.000ZMartin Davieshttps://globalriskcommunity.com/members/MartinDavies92<div><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">By looking at a case study in Monte Carlo and Loss Data, we are able to see how important it is to model loss experience and to categorise operational risk loss events.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">Recently I had a discussion on modelling risk with a fantastic and successful business person who said to me : "I have read about Monte Carlo, you even make mention to it on your blog but it doesn't make great sense to me. The maths in Monte Carlo is even worse because it seems to confuse the concept by taking it into an academic place that most people aren't from.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">Is it possible to explain Monte Carlo by using a tool we all understand such as Microsoft Excel?"</span></p><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">So be it, this blog posting is an Excel example of Monte Carlo and loss data. Due to the size of the post, it will be separated into two, possibly three updates.</span></p><p><span style="color:#3366ff;font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2"><a href="http://causalcapital.blogspot.com/2012/05/monte-carlo-and-loss-data.html" target="_blank"><span style="color:#3366ff;">Click here to continue reading</span></a></span></p></div>Correlate your risk factorshttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/correlate-your-risk-factors2012-04-07T06:28:55.000Z2012-04-07T06:28:55.000ZMartin Davieshttps://globalriskcommunity.com/members/MartinDavies92<div><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">Dimensioning Dependency, Correlation, Causality and Mutuality for multiple risk factors is an important modelling exercise risk analysts should entertain. Not doing so is one of the reasons why CAPM is busted.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">Let’s look at a very straight forward method for measuring correlation in risk variables and for propagating a final outcome.</span></p><p><span style="color:#ff0000;font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2"><a href="http://causalcapital.blogspot.com/2012/04/correlate-your-risk-factors.html" target="_blank"><span style="color:#ff0000;">To continue reading, follow this link</span></a></span></p></div>Frequency x Magnitude - the wrong measurehttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/frequency-x-magnitude-the-wrong-measure2012-03-12T15:20:30.000Z2012-03-12T15:20:30.000ZMartin Davieshttps://globalriskcommunity.com/members/MartinDavies92<div><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">In the world of operational risk, there are a lot of analysts who believe that they can dimension the impacts from uncertainty by counting the number of events they experience over a period of time and then multiply that count by the average loss amount for the total event horizon they observe.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2">This approach for quantifying the impacts from uncertainty is full of error and it should be avoided. In fact, let's be clear, it is so fundamentally wrong as a measure of exposure that it isn't even a good estimate of how much operational risk may cost us in the future. In this article we will look at why F x M = Exposure, doesn't equal the true potential loss for operational risk and what can be done to improve this measure of risk.</span></p><p><span style="color:#ff0000;font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" class="font-size-2"><a href="http://causalcapital.blogspot.com/2012/03/frequency-x-magnitude-wrong-measure.html" target="_blank"><span style="color:#ff0000;">Click here to continue reading</span></a></span></p></div>