triangular - Blog - Global Risk Community2024-03-28T09:02:50Zhttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/feed/tag/triangularApplication of Pascal’s Triangular Plus Monte Carlo Analysis to Design a Strategic Planhttps://globalriskcommunity.com/profiles/blogs/application-of-pascal-s-triangular-plus-monte-carlo-analysis-to2012-08-31T13:45:06.000Z2012-08-31T13:45:06.000ZGholamreza Soleimanihttps://globalriskcommunity.com/members/GholamrezaSoleimani<div><div>Following to article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” posted on link: <a href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/02/fuzzy-delphi-method-to-design-strategic.html">http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/02/fuzzy-delphi-method-to-design-strategic.html</a>, the purpose of this article is to utilize a new simulation model to design the <a title="Powered by Text-Enhance" href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2012-08-23T23:19:00-07:00#">strategic plan</a> instead of FDM where I had already depicted this simulation model in article of “Application of Pascal’s Triangular Plus Monte Carlo Analysis to Appraise the Wisdom of Crowds” on link: <a href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/05/application-of-pascals-triangular-plus_08.html">http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/05/application-of-pascals-triangular-plus_08.html</a>. The most important finding is to show the advantages of this simulation model to design the strategic plan in which I have compared the results with FDM.</div><div>The template of this article is the same “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan”.<br /><br /></div><div><b>Methodology</b><br /><b><br /></b></div><div>As you remember, I started an example of Driving Forces (DF) in article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” where I chose 14 experts to respond my survey <a title="Powered by Text-Enhance" href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2012-08-23T23:19:00-07:00#">questionnaire</a> about the ranking of driving forces issues as follows:</div><div> </div><table border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div><b>DF</b></div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div><b> P</b></div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div><b> M</b></div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div><b> O</b></div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">5.79</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.36</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF3</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.36</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF4</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.43</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF5</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.14</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF6</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.29</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF7</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.14</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF8</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.29</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF9</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.07</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF10</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.29</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF11</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.86</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF12</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">1</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.36</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF13</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.00</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">9</div></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="45"><div>DF14</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="28"><div align="right">2</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="32"><div align="right">6.43</div></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom" width="31"><div align="right">10</div></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /><br /></div><div>Now, I am willing to use this simulation model step by step instead of FDM as follows:</div><div>You can review the continuation of this article on my blow as follows:</div><div><a href="http://emfps.blogspot.com/">http://emfps.blogspot.com</a></div></div>