Implications of recent uprisings for the political risk field

Perhaps those analysts that accurately forecast the issues, triggers and outcomes we are all seeing now. If not, unlikely.

Too many companies and senior directors still see many of the unfolding issues as "things that just happen from time to time" and will not be any more motivated to track, avoid or prepare for all but guaranteed events in the future.

Those that see value in business intelligence and the skills required to fulfill the role will hold onto what they have already with some potential for increased spending or expansion. And in the process, remain more competitive and grow their market share. Possibly without even realizing it was thanks to such investments.

Past natural disasters, political unrest, terrorism and financial crisis has not resulted in a rush for more advice and analysis, it is unlikely to result in a rush now.

True skill and ability in this area takes years of experience. Not an overnight transition from a government agency either. Therefore the "catchment" area for such talent is really only those in the market now with a smaller percentage that will "come of age" in the next few months. Therefore any surge will only likely result in greater numbers of "unqualified" advisors whom will damage the sector despite the best of intentions and in not time at all we are back to a natural proportion of users and avoiders or political risk advice services.

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Tony Ridley February 7, 2011 11:31

Perhaps those analysts that accurately forecast the issues, triggers and outcomes we are all seeing now. If not, unlikely.

Too many companies and senior directors still see many of the unfolding issues as "things that just happen from time to time" and will not be any more motivated to track, avoid or prepare for all but guaranteed events in the future.

Those that see value in business intelligence and the skills required to fulfill the role will hold onto what they have already with some potential for increased spending or expansion. And in the process, remain more competitive and grow their market share. Possibly without even realizing it was thanks to such investments.

Past natural disasters, political unrest, terrorism and financial crisis has not resulted in a rush for more advice and analysis, it is unlikely to result in a rush now.

True skill and ability in this area takes years of experience. Not an overnight transition from a government agency either. Therefore the "catchment" area for such talent is really only those in the market now with a smaller percentage that will "come of age" in the next few months. Therefore any surge will only likely result in greater numbers of "unqualified" advisors whom will damage the sector despite the best of intentions and in not time at all we are back to a natural proportion of users and avoiders or political risk advice services.
Joe Nero February 3, 2011 23:43

Hi Milena,

It is hard to tell, at this point, whether political risk analysis will become more popular as a result of the recent uprisings. Our attention spans tend to be much shorter these days. If the story continues and the uprisings become even more widespread, then, I think yes.

Good question. I think only time will tell.

Joe

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Implications of recent uprisings for the political risk field

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