Q3 2026: up in every region
ChemAnalyst’s Q3 2026 insights show selenium firming in all three regions it tracks:
- USA: the index rose for a fourth straight quarter.
- Germany: the index rose for a fourth straight quarter.
- China: the index came under upward pressure, with prices around USD 29,890/MT FOB China. China had been stable in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 before turning higher in Q2.
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Why supply can’t respond: selenium rides on copper
Selenium is recovered as a byproduct of copper refining, so its supply depends on copper smelting rather than on selenium’s own price. That link explains most of this year’s tightness.
In Q1 2026, copper smelter treatment and refining charges fell to historic lows, at times turning negative. This squeezed smelter margins, and major Chinese smelters cut production. In Q2, mine disruptions limited global copper supply. In Q3, the page notes that tight copper concentrate supply and a narrowing refined copper surplus between January and July reduced byproduct selenium availability. Refined byproduct material was also heavily diverted to the United States in Q1, which tightened supply in Europe.
Costs: energy and acid
Production costs rose in every region:
- USA: producer prices rose 6.3% year-over-year in September. Sulfuric acid prices surged in August and wholesale electricity spiked in July.
- China: producer prices rose 5.0%, and stronger global energy prices raised fuel and coal costs.
- Germany: producer prices rose 4.6% in August, and natural gas costs climbed.
Demand: AI and high-tech pull
In the US, demand from AI infrastructure grew faster than supply chains could keep up, and manufacturing output grew moderately. In China, high-tech manufacturing and strong exports of AI-related products drove demand, building on Q2’s growth in photovoltaic module production and semiconductor investment. In Germany, new orders in electronics and machinery strengthened and electronics exports surged in July.
What to watch
Not every signal is positive. German industrial production fell 3.3% year-on-year in July, and weak retail sales and low consumer confidence weighed on demand. China’s consumer prices rose only 0.9%. ChemAnalyst’s forecast points to continued pressure from energy costs and industrial activity. Copper smelter output is the main supply variable to watch.
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