Agar agar prices have alternated between rising and falling for four quarters in a row. According to ChemAnalyst's agar agar price index, Japan's CFR Tokyo average fell in Q3 2025, rose in Q4, fell in Q1 2026 and rose again in Q2. Buyers who understand that pattern can time purchases to it. The more surprising figure is in India, where June 2026 prices were about 29% above China's.
Key numbers
- Japan, Q2 2026: about USD 12,793/MT CFR Tokyo, up 3.26% quarter-over-quarter
- Japan, previous quarters: USD 12,390/MT in Q1 2026 (−4.35%), USD 12,953/MT in Q4 2025 (+3.35%), USD 12,533/MT in Q3 2025 (−3.07%)
- June 2026: Japan USD 12,750/MT, China USD 12,700/MT, India USD 16,341/MT
- North America, Q2 2026: about USD 12,770/MT CFR, stable to slightly soft
Why does agar move like this?
Agar is a seaweed extract, so its supply follows harvests and shipping schedules rather than the chemical industry cycle. Each move in the pattern above has a clear cause.
- Q2 2026 (up): Seasonal lower shipments from Chile and Indonesia tightened import availability into Japan. China's index also rose 3.27% as coastal seaweed supply tightened.
- Q1 2026 (down): Ample shipments from Indonesia and Chile kept port inventories high, and buying slowed after the holidays.
- Q4 2025 (up): Low importer inventories and a limited number of approved processors tightened supply. Seasonal confectionery production and microbiology-media restocking added urgent demand.
- Q3 2025 (down): Weak domestic demand and high importer inventories reduced the need to buy.
The pattern is driven by restocking. Importers build stock ahead of the confectionery season, run it down, then rebuild. Prices follow that cycle.
Why does India pay more?
India's June price was USD 16,341/MT, compared with USD 12,700/MT in China and USD 12,750/MT in Japan. India's index rose only 0.376% in Q2, held up by imports and lean inventories. Comfortable import arrivals actually pushed domestic offers lower, with some distributors discounting.
Before you read this as a pricing gap, check two things. First, the price basis may differ, since landed domestic prices include duties and distribution costs that CFR prices exclude. Second, the grade may differ. ChemAnalyst's benchmark is food grade with 600 g/cm² gel strength, in 25 kg bags, at a contract size of 25 MT. Gel strength is often the main reason two agar quotes don't match.
Which costs matter?
Agar is extracted from red seaweed such as Gracilaria and Gelidium, then dried. Drying uses a lot of energy. In Q4 2025, higher LNG costs for drying and refrigerated freight surcharges pushed costs up. In Q2 2026, higher container freight and insurance on the Shanghai–Yokohama route raised landed costs for Japanese importers. For buyers, freight and drying energy are the cost levers to watch, alongside the harvest itself.
What buyers should do before the next contract
- Buy in the down quarters. If the pattern holds, the quarter after a seasonal restock usually brings softer offers and comfortable port inventories.
- Specify gel strength in every quote. Comparing a 600-grade quote with a 900-grade quote shows a price gap where the real difference is quality.
- Watch Chilean and Indonesian shipments. They determined the direction of Japanese prices in each of the last four quarters.
Outlook
ChemAnalyst expects Japan to lean upward, supported by seasonal confectionery demand. North America is expected to be stable to soft, guided by import availability and seaweed harvests. Europe is expected to stay stable, with limited upside unless seaweed supply tightens. With confectionery and biotech restocking ahead, Q4 looks like an up quarter again.
See the latest agar agar prices by country on the ChemAnalyst agar agar price page.
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