Aluminum foil prices rose in the US, China and Germany in both Q1 and Q2 2026. That hadn't happened in any quarter of 2025. According to ChemAnalyst's aluminum foil price index, China's foil price averaged about USD 6,050/MT FOB in Q2 2026, and the US index rose for a fourth consecutive quarter. For food, pharma and battery-packaging buyers, the low prices of late 2025 are gone.
Key numbers
- China, Q2 2026: about USD 6,050/MT FOB China, up quarter-over-quarter
- United States: up in every quarter from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026
- Germany: stable in Q3 2025, down in Q4, then up in Q1 and Q2 2026
- China's index fell in Q3 and Q4 2025 before turning up in 2026
Why foil prices depend on electricity
Foil is aluminum rolled very thin, and making primary aluminum takes a huge amount of electricity. Power costs therefore reach foil prices in two ways: through the price of the metal, and through the cost of rolling it. Electricity drove much of the past year's increase.
- United States: industrial electricity prices rose again in Q2 2026 after a jump in February, raising both smelting and rolling costs. Primary aluminum prices also edged up in Q2.
- Germany: high industrial electricity prices raised production costs in Q2. In Q1, some European smelters stopped part of their production because of energy costs, and natural gas and power prices spiked in February.
- China: high electricity costs kept steady pressure on smelters in Q1, and rising alumina costs added to it in Q2.
China: why supply is tight even with capacity available
China's supply tightened for three reasons. First, primary aluminum output was held back by China's national capacity ceiling. Second, producers ran down their own stocks faster in June. Third, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached a record high in June, leaving less metal at home. The secondary alloy industry also ran at lower rates from April to June, which tightened supply further.
Demand was mixed. Weak retail sales held back packaging demand, but growth in vehicle exports supported automotive demand. In Q1, demand for battery-pack foil grew as EV battery packs got larger.
North America: tariffs and tight stocks
US aluminum inventories tightened in Q2 as consumption held up. US tariffs on aluminum had doubled by June 2026, which raised the cost of imported metal. On the demand side, retail sales grew 6.9% in May and supported packaged-goods demand.
What buyers should do before the next contract
- Price metal and conversion separately. Link the aluminum portion to a primary metal benchmark and negotiate the rolling (conversion) charge on its own. That way you can see whether an increase comes from the metal or from the converter's margin.
- Specify alloy and gauge. Household foil, pharma blister foil and battery foil differ in alloy, thickness and surface quality. Comparing quotes for different specs gives misleading gaps.
- Account for trade measures. With higher US tariffs and record Chinese exports, how you route supply can now affect landed cost as much as the base metal price does.
Outlook
ChemAnalyst's Q2 data shows costs rising across all three regions. Electricity, constrained primary supply and low inventories are pushing the same way. In Q4 2025, falling alumina and bauxite costs pulled foil prices down. A similar fall in raw material or energy costs is the most likely thing to ease prices again. Until then, plan for firm prices.
Track regional aluminum foil prices, drivers and forecasts on the ChemAnalyst aluminum foil price page.
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