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The referendum (19 March) on the constitutional reforms in Egypt was held in compliance with the state laws. Certain violations at a number of polling stations were reported but they were insignificant and could not affect the final outcome. Nearly 18.5 million voters (41.1% of those eligible 45 million Egyptians) turned out. Of these 77.2% (14.2 million) voted in favour of the reforms and with ca. 23% (4 million)- opposed. These results can be considered as a successful test for what the sentiments of the Egyptian society before and during the parliamentary elections (most probably in September this year) will be like.

Some preliminary estimates of the shares of the participating parties, movements and individual politicians in the votes were confirmed. The constitutional reforms were backed by the biggest opposition power “The Muslim brotherhood” /MB/ and its coalition partners the “Salafist, movement, “Al Jama’a Al-Islamiya”, the newly established moderate Islamic party “Al-Wasat” close to MB and others. The conservative National Democratic Party /NDP/ of the stepped-down President Hosni Mubarak also voted in favour of the reforms. Obviously the reasons for backing the reforms are different for the biggest political players although they have one common reason too – both political powers win by shortening the period until the elections by evading the cardinal problems or stated in other words by delaying the cardinal constitutional reforms. This actually leads to postponing of the essential constitutional changes.

MB retains its well built organizational structure in the country as well as its followers. It remains the only major oppositional force in the political sphere. The organization prefers the elections to be held sooner which will prevent the remainder of the opposition and the remnants of the previously ruling NDP from regrouping. Otherwise it is possible that an alternative player shows up which can cause a serious competition in the elections. There is some talk already about the planned formation of the political party “Freedom and Justice” with the purpose to broaden the support by the population for MB and for its entering the political life in Egypt. A prerequisite for the speedier legal formation of the party is the present constitution to remain in force rather than suspended.

NDP benefits from the approval of the constitutional reforms too. Giving its vote it relies on retaining its dwindling number of supporters and on rallying the party before the parliamentary elections. The enactment of an amended Constitution preserves the status quo to e certain extent thus extending time to the party for reorganizing itself, for expelling the discredited party members, for reinforcing its structures in the country and for the endorsing its image of a reformed party. Failing to convince the public in its new inception NDP can most probably share the destiny of many failed parties – to be officially dissolved and voices to this effect can already be heard in the political spheres.

The parties, movements and the politicians (the liberal “Al Wafd” party, the left “Al Tagammo” party, the 8.5 million Copts and the two main Presidential candidates – the Secretary General of the Arab League Mr. Amr Moussa and the former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and opposition leader Mr. ElBaradei demand substantial constitutional and democratic reforms and not barely political cosmetics, voted “against”. The necessary extended time for the drafting of a new Constitution gives a chance to these parties and movements to have longer time to prepare for the elections, to complete its party structures and to receive their public endorsement in the Egypt political sphere.

The referendum clearly demonstrated that MB is the new political force in Egypt. Most probably it will dominate the newly elected Parliament and dictate further political changes in the country. The formation of the “Freedom and Justice” party within days can be expected. With the declared open doors for party members from the whole social spectrum in the country it will further expand the MB influence. The future foreign policy orientation of Egypt will depend on what the future behavior of the movement and of its concomitant party will be.