I have just recently got my hands on a the Crystal Ball add-in for excel. After reading Doug Hubbard's "The Failure of Risk Management" he convinced me that point estimates are old-school techniques to be put on the shelf, and running simulations on probability distributions IS the best way to manage, understand, and interpret the possible risks when faced with a decision.
I'm just wondering if anyone else is using this program. I really like it, and I can't wait too be using it for my own decisions. Interestingly, though, I have not met too may other people using this or ever even seen it mentioned on job postings. Ths program has been around for about 20 years, but why is everyone not using it?
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