SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS MARCH 2011

Dear Madam/Sir,        

 

South Asia: Concerns over Political Stability

 

Last month compared to the despots of West Asia we paid a tribute to democracies in South Asia, but political stability has been a key concern for the region and will remain so in the future as well. Pakistan and Nepal are the main challenges. While Mr. Jhalanath Khanal of Communist Party of Nepal Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN UML) has been elected as the Prime Minister and has formed a government in Nepal supported by the Unified CPN M or the Maoists, revelations of a secret seven point deal between Mr Khanal and Maoist leader Prachanda which includes award of Home Ministry to the former rebels have led to a stalemate in the formation of a full fledged ministry. This in turn impacts the peace process including drafting of the Constitution and integration of the PLA cadres in the army which are required to be completed by 28 May.

 

Pakistan ever a problem case is also likely to find the going tough for the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led government even though its chairman Mr Zardari is the President. Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader and former Prime Minister Mian Mohammed Nawaz Sharif has shown the door to the PPP’s ministers in coalition in Punjab and declared intent of forcing mid term elections. Meanwhile US Pakistan relations are at an all time low with suspension of strategic dialogue over the Raymond Davis affair.

 

In neighbouring Afghanistan the parliament finally elected a speaker an ethnic Uzbek after factional divisions had prevented two main ethnic communities, Pashtuns and Tajiks from putting their chosen representative in the chair. The eternal tug of war replicating differences between ethnic groups in the country is likely to haunt politics in the days ahead. But there are some hopes at reconciliation with the Hizb E Islami likely to be the first to join the process as indicated by political posturing in recent months.

 

In Bangladesh the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is attempting to desperately come back into the limelight and is raising even conspiracy theories involving the Army and the Bangladesh Rifles now renamed as Border Guards Bangladesh. In neighbouring Indian states of Assam and West Bengal State elections are being held in April and May. Both states have been on the cusp of vulnerability in terms of internal security. In Assam the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) has been engaged by the centre and the state in talks after a prolonged insurgency going back to the early 1990’s, the ruling Congress party is hoping to cash in on the reconciliation process. West Bengal has a festering Naxal problem in three western districts centered on the forested area known as Jangal Mahal. The State has a history of violence during elections, thus it is anticipated that the trend will continue. Other states going for hustings are Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Elections in these states will have reverberations on politics at the national level impacting coalition at the centre led by the Congress which is under pressure to show results.

 

Given that politics dictates security, continued instability in some countries in South Asia is no doubt weakening the fight against terrorism amongst other challenging security issues, how various governments will meet the same remains to be seen.

 

            A preview of the Contents is as given below-           

 

Lead 1 – India: An “Out of Area Contingency,” in Libya

 

Lead 2 - Eastern SAARC: A New Paradigm in Regional Relations

 

Lead 3 - Naxalism: Rebels Regain Initiative

 

Lead 4 – Kashmir: Changing the Discourse in Summer                

 

All Contents

 

  • Afghanistan: The Ides of Spring                                                                       12
  • Bangladesh: Resolving Land and Maritime Boundary                                   20
  • Bhutan: A Base for Assam Rebels Again?                                                       23
  • China: Key Challenges in Sino Indian Relations                                             25       
  • Maldives: Piracy Fears?                                                                                     31
  • Myanmar: World’s Youngest Elected Parliament!                                          33
  • Nepal: The Seven Point Stalemate                                                                     36
  • Pakistan: Beginning of Political Change?                                                         40
  • Sri Lanka: Familiar Political Squabbles                                                           48
  • India: Aero India Success, Modernisation Woes                                              53
  • Eastern SAARC: A New Paradigm in Regional Relations                                53
  • India: An “Out of Area Contingency,” in Libya                                                56
  • India Terrorism: PM Highlights Capacity Building                                        79
  • Kashmir: Changing the Discourse in Summer                                                  82
  • North East: Multiple Talks Strategy                                                                 86
  • Naxalism: Rebels Regain Initiative                                                                     93

 

With Warm Regards and best wishes,

Yours Sincerely,

Rahul Bhonsle

Editor

 

Email – rkbhonsle@gmail.com


You need to be a member of Global Risk Community to add comments!

Join Global Risk Community

Votes: 0
Email me when people reply –

[Free COVID-19 Framework] What's the path to recovery look like?

We created a free presentation (attached), which discusses both global and organizational impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with critical actions organizations should take immediately. This presentation introduces a framework that helps regions and organizations navigate a path to recovery via 9 potential scenarios. These scenarios capture outcomes related to GDP impact, public health response, and economic policies. The presentation also breaks down 6 immediate and critical actions…

Read more…
3 Replies · Reply by Boris Agranovich Jan 2
Views: 70

If risk management is about decision making, are current risk management solutions irrelevant?

Now that the updated COSO and ISO risk management standards emphasize a connection to enterprise objectives and decision making, does this mean ERM and GRC solutions focused on risk registers and regulatory compliance are missing the true value of risk management?Will current risk management solutions evolve to integrate more decision support functionality or will standalone prescriptive analytics and other technology solutions take a more prominent role in enabling risk-informed…

Read more…
3 Replies
Views: 43

A question related to classification of instruments between trading and banking book.

We have an interesting question from one of our members.       "We usually perform OTC FX transactions with clients backed-to-back on the market (with Banks). Now we are going to perform a FX swap (i.e. Spot + forward) JPY/EUR for the Bank account for 1 week at the longest. The purpose is to get EUR place @ CB for LCR compliance purpose (no trading purposes). Bank's Management think that this should be considered as a trading position and therefore be classified within the Bank's trading book.…

Read more…
4 Replies
Views: 104

Plunging oil prices: curse or blessing in disguise?

The recent sudden crash of oil prices has had a major impact on the world economy, leading to many troubled faces in the international arena. The Russians fear the effects of yet another powerful hit on their economy, Venezuela seems to be considering default and the Americans are weary of the consequences for its young and emerging shale oil industry. And then you have the Middle East, where the smallest match is enough to ignite the largest fire. But are these worries really justified or…

Read more…
1 Reply
Views: 17

Introducing the Global Risk Series - Book 1 Risk Management How Tos

Dear GlobalRisk Community member, Our community’s mission is to foster business, networking and educational explorations among members. Learn from some of the top experts in the industry as they clearly explain how to approach the most important Risk management concepts. Check out their expert tips and use the link at the end of each article to navigate back to the website to leave your comment or ask a question. Some of the topics include: How do you Explain Risk Appetite?  How to Prepare a…

Read more…
12 Replies
Views: 215

    About Us

    The GlobalRisk Community is a thriving community of risk managers and associated service providers. Our purpose is to foster business, networking and educational explorations among members. Our goal is to be the worlds premier Risk forum and contribute to better understanding of the complex world of risk.

    Business Partners

    For companies wanting to create a greater visibility for their products and services among their prospects in the Risk market: Send your business partnership request by filling in the form here!

lead