A couple of distinctions I would like to see more attention paid to, so that it is always clear what is being addressed;
1. Ex ante prediction of risk (e.g. the probabilities assigned to possible future results)
vs.
Ex post evaluation of past risk (i.e. the experienced impact of actual past outcomes or implementations).
2. The uncontrollable risk that each various aspect of the world (market) creates for you, given that you have put yourself in a particular situation (If I do all this, how can I expect this particular aspect of the world to affect me?)
vs.
the controllable risk that each aspect of your decision process creates (created) in putting yourself into a particular situation, given that the world (market) does (did) what it does (did) (If the world as a whole acts like this, how can I expect this particular decision to change things for me?).
I believe that it can be helpful to understand the past impact of each clearly differentiated kind of our own controllable past decisions when we are trying to predict what uncontrollable things will happen to us upon making different future decisions. What can be properly measured can be better controlled and improved.
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