Some California utilities have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons – including the 2010 San Bruno gas pipeline explosion that killed 8 people, the 2015/6 leak from Aliso Canyon gas storage, the 2018 Camp Fire that destroyed the town of Paradise, plus the Dominion Pipeline ransomware cyberattack that cut gasoline supply to the US Northeast.
The California Public Utilities Commission requires utilities to quantify these risks using risk-spend efficiency (RSE) to prioritize mitigations based on how much risk they reduce per dollar invested. It uses a multi-attribute value function to combine outcomes, including fatalities, reliability, and cost. I’ll review how California utilities are using this approach.
Max will discuss how these methods could help other organizations manage and mitigate a wide variety of risks.
Max Henrion, PhD is the founder and CEO of Lumina Decision Systems. He was founding President of the Association of Uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence. He coauthored “Uncertainty” (Cambridge Univ Press), three other books, and over 70 refereed articles. He was lead designer of Analytica, about which PC Week said “All the problems of the common spreadsheet are fixed in Analytica”. He was formerly Professor at Carnegie Mellon. He has a BA from Cambridge University and PhD from Carnegie Mellon. He received the 2018 Frank Ramsey Medal from the Decision Analysis Society.