Framework for Megatrend Analysis

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A "megatrend" is a large-scale pattern or movement with significant, long-lasting effects on business and society.

Examining Megatrends to comprehend global complexities dates back to ancient mythology.  Before 1982, megatrend was not a recognized phrase; John Naisbitt coined the term in his 1982 book of the same name.  Experts like the Tofflers, Naisbitt, and Drucker have attempted to understand change in large-scale patterns in modern times.

In 2013, PwC initiated a study project on Megatrends and their implications for businesses and government leaders.  The objectives of PwC's 2013 research were to comprehend society's intrinsic curiosity about external influences, to deepen and extend the ensuing dialogue, and to transform the total understanding of Megatrends into a framework that businesses might use to seek opportunities and minimize risks.

This research on Megatrends aided PwC in developing a framework comprised of the following 5 key components:

  • Demographic and Social Change
  • Shifts in Global Economic Power
  • Rapid Urbanization
  • Climate Change and Resource Scarcity
  • Technological Breakthroughs 

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The Megatrends Framework may benefit any corporate or public sector leader in gaining a clearer understanding of multidimensional external transformations and in developing a well-organized, pragmatic, and proactive strategy for addressing these changes.

Let's delve a bit more into the 5 historical recurrences that continue to impact nearly every aspect of the world's economic and social structure.

Demographic and Social Change

The 1st trend is a combination of increased life expectancy, declining birthrates in various parts of the world, and unprecedented levels of human migration, together with a gradual rise in the position of women and more ethnic and socioeconomic variety in many nations.

Shifts in Global Economic Power

Rapid wealth accumulation in emerging economies relative to developed ones has mostly resulted in significant shifts in consumption habits and a rebalancing of international relations.

Rapid Urbanization

Migration and births have contributed to the rapid urbanization of the world's cities, which has had profound consequences on quality of life and culture, notably in terms of land use, infrastructure, traffic, and employment.

Climate Change and Resource Scarcity

Increasing demands for food, water, and energy on a globe with limited resources and much less space for carbon dioxide and a huge variety of other effluents.

Technological Breakthroughs

Changes in business and daily life as a result of the creation and implementation of the most recent digitally enabled innovations in fields such as Cloud Computing, the Internet of Things, Nanotechnology, Fabrication (including 3D Printing), and Biotechnology.

All of the stated Megatrends have already occurred to some degree, and there is a subtle connection between them.

It is not a question of the Megatrends coinciding, but rather of them clashing, resulting in disturbing or revolutionary upheavals that ripple across nearly every business on the planet.  The collision of Megatrends will occur in some form, but the specifics are often unknown.

It is impossible to predict the precise interaction between 2 Megatrends.  However, it is certain that the collisions will push everyone beyond a certain point, to a world that will be considerably different from the present.

Interested in learning more about Megatrends Framework?  You can download an editable PowerPoint presentation on Megatrends Framework here on the Flevy documents marketplace.

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