modeling (2)

Self-Deception – Modeling “Unknown Unknowns”

 

Introduction

 

Fundamental uncertainties derive from our fragmentary understanding of risk and complex system dynamics and interdependencies.  Abundant stochastic variation in risk parameters further exacerbates the ability to clearly assess uncertainties.

 

Uncertainty is not just a single dimension, but also surrounds the potential impacts of forces such as globalization and decentralization, effects of movements of global markets and trade regimes, and

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ISO 31010 and Loss Modeling

One of the most concerning trends that continually persists in operational risk management, is the lack of interest from analysts to attempt to quantify this risk exposure coherently.

In this blog we look operational risk from the perspective of the normal and the extreme.

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