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Prediction on US GDP this quarter - lucky guess?

Posted by B.R. Deshpande on May 1, 2010 at 20:05
Based on latest data from BEA, BLS, Fed, Ontonix published an analysis early last week.Here were the main conclusions (based on data up to 2009 Q4)- This recovery is only marginally better than the last one in 2001- This recovery seems to be Export driven where as the last one appeared to be Import driven- There is still a lot of turbulence in the economy, in fact the amount of complexity (or turbulence) has increased nearly 75% since 2008 Q1- Interest rates might not have the same effect on future growth as do unemployment numbers- It was estimated that 2010 Q1 growth would be slower than 2009 Q4 growth.ACTUAL GROWTH: 3.2% in 2010Q1 vs. 5.6% in 2009Q4BTW luck had very little to do with the prediction!(white paper on this topic can be found here: www.ontonix-usa.com).
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