Just as electrification replaces technologies that use fossil fuels with those that use electricity, Chancification replaces computations based on deterministic numbers with those based on probability distributions.
Just as non-experts can illuminate light bulbs with electricity generated by power engineers, Chancification will allow everyday managers (even those suffering from Post-Traumatic Statistics Disorder, or PTSD) to illuminate uncertainty and fix the Flaw of Averages with stochastic libraries created by statisticians and data scientists.
I will demonstrate free tools that will help you jump start this process within your own organization.
https://2022.riskawarenessweek.com/talks/chance-informed-healthcare-resource-management-in-the-face-of-pandemic-uncertainty/
Dr. Sam L. Savage is the author of The Flaw of Averages and Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others.
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