Scenario Analysis in Low Data Environments -- The Pandemic Problem

Over the last two weeks, we have been exploring the challenges that COVID19 continues to deliver to risk managers, particularly with respect to scenario analysis construction.  We would be glad for feedback from this community on whether the content is helpful.

We have looked at the Twin Data Deficits created by emergency regulatory policies that change key policy definitions and delay regulatory reporting...and we discussed Why Data Deficits Matter

Spoiler alert:  data deficits matter because markets need data the way people need oxygen.

Regarding scenario analysis for purposes of measuring and managing public policy risks, we have spent this week debunking three misconceptions.  Specifically,

Scenario analysis NOT a dart board exercise or a random walk throug...,

Policy-related event risk is NOT a random variable;

and

AI is NOT the answer. 

Feedback and questions are always appreciated. 

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