MIT SLOAN
Management Review
By Paul J.H. Schoemaker
Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic
planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to
capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail. By
identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can
construct a series of scenarios that will help to compensate for
the usual errors in decision making — overconfidence and
tunnel vision. Through case studies of Interpublic, an
international advertising agency, and Anglo-American
Corporation in South Africa, the author describes how to
build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the
resulting stories to plan a company’s future.
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