When the war in Ukraine began, its shockwaves hit 5 export categories almost at once: agricultural products, chemicals, manufacturing, metals, and oil and gas. Each faced the same 3 blows, with production reduced or plants closed outright, procurement of Russian-origin materials restricted by sanctions and voluntary corporate limits, and logistics disrupted across air, sea, rail, and road networks. Worse, the shocks did not act in isolation. Their impacts compounded one another, making both seve