As the year draws to a close, it's always enjoyable to look ahead to 2011 and get out our crystal balls.
Every winter, Operational Risk & Regulation looks at what the major upcoming op risk challenges are likely to be in the year ahead, and we would love your input.
In previous years, people have told us that fraud, data management, the environment, business siloes and the wider economy have been major op risk hazards for financial institutions.
What do you believe are the dangers that firms will have to avoid in operational risk in 2011, and why?
In case you have seen it, or you just need reminding, below is last year's list.
Fraud and Financial Crime
Money Laundering
Cyber Crime and Internet
Regulatory Risk
Stakeholder Risk
Internal Process and Systems
Employee Risk
Market manipulation and insider trading
Internal Communications
Reputational Risk
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Replies
Emerging market risk - few countries such as indonesia,vietnam where new markets will be created, but lots of issues in doing business there
Civil war risk - Change in arab world would pose new risk to financial market..oil prices might get affected
Terrorism risk - Threat from pakistan based terrorists
Nuclear risk - From countries such as Iran,North korea,myanmar
Instablity in markets due to polical unrest. The insurance market has already increased 16 countries Political Instability risk. This instability have a major effecto on most of the operational risks of a company.
I think Egypt was also a wake up call in this regard, increasing the risk of government interferance with a company's business, like the local telco's found out.
Regulatory risk will have to rank higher this year, given all the international regulatory changes that are occurring and the lack of any real understanding as to what the impacts will be regardles of the risk measure used or the economic impact. The other factor will be what people do to try to circumvent the new requirements. These attempts will create their own risks, which will not be accounted for in the scheme of things.
Roy Jensen
Top 10 Security Threats for 2011
http://www.thesecuritypub.com/2010/11/15/top-10-security-threats-fo...
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation across the board (currency, equities, assets, food, energy and water).
The Global Market looks like a NIRVANA, entering into a Great Unknown with risk management pretending to measure unmeasurable risks due to the following reasons :-
a) a combination of fiscal adventurism and monetary easing, whether made sense or nonsense, may, in this environment, become a lethal concoction sparkling capital outflows encouraging massive speculation that can cause socially harmful "tail risks", amongst others. Billions (if not, Trillions) of cash have arrived in Asia.
b) Euro or "Teuro", and Germany becoming "Goldman Sachs" of Euro.
c) Emerging Countries linking their monetary policies to the US Fed are pursuing a path inimical to their best interests causing currency spats pointing to protectionism. (Recap, the monetary policies of emerging economies, devised in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, are now part of the global inflation problem, by directly or indirectly tying their currencies to the dollar, they suffer the imported inflation that normally accompanies a weakening exchange rate).
d) Global forces are largely market forces, unleashed by global liberalization meaning a correlation between Globalization and Inflation. Central Banks could probably not control long-term rates even if they tried to intervene directly in long-term interest market.
e) "Bubbles" are inevitable as to suppress means making matters worse rather than better, and that human beings cannot avoid them. For instance, of all the breathtaking factoids about China's rise, the most fantastic may concern the stock market. They are now bigger than China's GDP. Clearly, there are some very smart policy makers keeping China's boom on the rails. The trouble is, their ability to keep things going is being tested as never before. You might say China is experiencing a bubble in bubbles. Lombard Street Research commented recently that "China is set for hard landing". I doubt, like US and Euro, who would, with a right frame of mind, will like these countries to fall as they are the engine of global growth at times like this.
f) Due to Climate Change, future production, technologies and many other variables cannot be perfectly described contractually today, so that in practice a contract cannot include all the contingencies and is thus incomplete. Contractual incompleteness increases with the duration of the contract rendering revision and re-negotiation at times go on. Also, Climate Change has given us a new equation "a financially viable project may not be environmentally viable and may not be sustainability viable".
g) Agricultural subsidies and trade barriers in developed nations have historically stifled the growth of the agricultural industry in poor nations. If they announced the suspension of all trade barriers (and end its own unnecessary subsidies) for agricultural products today, then capital would flow to the developing world with unprecedented speed and force. By next year, you could be sure prices would be lower with higher output. But such a move has zero chance of taking place. Entrenched agricultural interests, esp in Europe and US, are far too powerful despite attempts made at Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations.
The prerequisite for collective action at the global level is a recognition that, first, inflation is a problem and, second, that is caused by policy-induced rise in global demand. Alternatively, we may keep on having visions about the causes of inflation - and electricity.
Richard Ellis PMP PRM
www.richardellis86.blogspot.com
Interesting question. My take is that nothing much has been done in 2010 to reduce the above mentioned risks, they have on the other hand increased.
In financial institutions, the reason for the risks are that orgnaization culture is risk happy ( they like risks for want of better word) rather than being risk averse. See the foreclosure mess in USA. It is a systemic risks and unless the root cause is addressed, and government is willing to take tough stance, this will prevail.
Money laundering and fraud has increased due to terrrorism funding. Pakistan is known to foster terrorists. USA carries on provding billion dollar funds to keep itself safe from terrorist attack. In a way USA is succumbing to the blackmail and threat of Pakistan. Point is, in a way the risks are interconnected. Hence, without strong measures to address them at a global level these will prevail.
At a global level, each country wants to push its own agenda, hence cooperation is difficult. At a country level, the rich are prospering due to these risks, hence they have no interest in curtailing them. The low income group is busy trying to earn its daily bread and survive, they either way do not have the education or political clout to do anything. The middle class in most countries is the one which can do something and would achieve some benefits from their actions, however they are self-obsessed class which only functions or reacts when something personal happens. There is signficant apathy in them, hence liklihood of anything occuring is low.
Under these parameters risk managers will always be asked to work in a crises, and be ignored in good times. And from the looks of the society and world as a whole, number of crises are increasing. So we will always be in demand :)
Sonia