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Unraveling Extreme Value Theory

An interesting request came through from one of our customers today and is worth sharing on the Causal Capital blog because a lot of risk practitioners struggle with some of the more complex areas of modelling uncertainty. This is especially the case when risk managers are attempting to assess the size of impacts from catastrophes.

In this presentation and video, we unravel Extreme Value Theory [LINK]

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ERM Software vs. SharePoint

ScreenHunter_71-May.-12-14.39-500x422.jpg?width=200Once SharePoint has taken root in a company, there’s a tendency to try to use it for everything. The mega-popular platform can accomplish many use cases, from social networking to document management. It’s no wonder then that Risk Managers have been asked to build their programs on SharePoint - and live and die with the consequences. If your organization is considering SharePoint for ERM or other governance activity, or you’re considering moving your program off SharePoint all together, consider

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If you have attended a workshop or speech of mine in the last 10 years you may well have been exposed to my version of the risk management journey for organisations from Vulnerable to Resilient.  I portray the journey using an S-Curve, as shown here:

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The nature of an S-Curve is that it is relatively easy to run up the middle of the curve, however, it is difficult to move up the last 20% or so.  So it is for organisations in their risk management journey and so it is for Risk Advisors in organisat

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ERM: Doing it, and doing it right

ScreenHunter_83-May.-15-12.02.jpg?width=200Jeffery Reynolds’ article in ABA Banking Journal, “ERM: Getting it, and getting it right”, equates the definition of Enterprise Risk Management with happiness.

"Before you start with ERM, you have to define it. If it were only that easy to nail down the definition of ERM—but it is not…Defining ERM is like defining happiness. Happiness is not the same for me as it is for you. Nor is it the same for me today as it was 20 years ago. And what drives happiness today will likely not be what defines hap

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The MIT Sloan Management Review and Deloitte University Press have collaborated to produce an excellent paper on the value of social media.  It is titled Moving Beyond Marketing and it can be found here.

The article made me realise that if all an organisation is doing is using social media for communicating messages and monitoring the response, they are missing out on great opportunities.  The paper is based on research into social media use by business and derives its key learnings from busin

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Recently Philippines passed into law Republic Act 10641 allowing full entry of foreign banks in the Philippines. The act is an amendment to an older RA 7721 which was passed way back in May 1994 which allowed foreign ownership of up to 60% of an existing bank or subsidiary, but limiting the entry to 1 entity.

https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140722102746-48635668-the-philippines-takes-an-important-step-towards-asean-financial-integration

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The Yin and Yang of Inflation

8028227472?profile=originalInflation like all risk is a double edge sword. Its negative nature will upset the apple cart and pose uncomfortable challenges for SME managers that have grown accustomed to the status quo.

It will force managers to reconsider their well conceived business plans and perhaps more closely scrutinize this quarters P&L or the company balance sheet. It will present serious challenges for businesses supply chain and client relationships. It may raise the eyebrows of your shareholders and credit provid

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8028229067?profile=originalRegardless of guilt or innocence, FedEx’s recent indictment has reminded us that in today’s world of complex global interactions and increased regulations, organizations must have a strong handle on interrelated risk, business processes, and relationships.

This past week, FedEx made headlines for knowingly assisting illegal online pharmacies, according to the U.S. Federal Government. The company is being charged with conspiracy to distribute controlled substances and drug trafficking, as reports

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Risk Appetite in IT operations

Assessing and measuring risk appetite away from an investment portfolio is perhaps one of the most difficult risk management initiatives practitioners have to entertain, it is also discussed often on risk forums and written about avidly by many consulting firms.

In this article we release a white paper that steps through the entire process of measuring and assessing risk appetite, dealing with the numbers specifically rather than just top level summaries and catch phrases on what risk appetite is

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ScreenHunter_147-Jul.-16-16.34.jpg?width=220There are a couple of common refrains we hear at LogicManager on a consistent basis. One is of particular concern to risk managers seeking to establish legitimacy and trust within their organization.

"My boss just doesn't get it."

The signs you're on this boat are noteworthy. You're rarely questioned about the legitimacy of the data you've collected. Feedback is positive, but non-descript (e.g. "We appreciate your work."). Your findings don't result in a change in direction, or worse, no one even

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SME Development Bank (SDB)

8028227652?profile=originalThe Hamilton Plan: SME Development Bank (SDB)


Over the Labor Day Weekend Sum2 announced The Hamilton Plan. The Hamilton Plan is a ten point program to foster the development of manufacturing in the United States by tapping the entrepreneurial energy of small and mid-size enterprises (SME). The plan's 10 points address sustainable business models, GRC best practices, capital formation initiatives, SME banking, labor union stakeholder empowerment, association syndication, cooperative formation, sup

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Big Data for a Small World: SMEIoT

8028227264?profile=originalIoT

The world is a great big database and algorithmic wizards and mad data scientists are burning the midnight oil to mine the perplexing infinities of ubiquitous data points. Their goal is to put data to use to facilitate better governance, initiate pinpoint marketing campaigns, pursue revelatory academic research and improve the quality of service public agencies deliver to protect and serve communities. The convergence of Big Data, Cloud Computing and the Internet of Things (IoT) make this pos

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Healthcare-Industry.jpg?width=300The healthcare industry has grappled with HIPAA for nearly 20 years. The ever-changing, extensive piece of legislation mandates the protection and security of patients' private health information, and HIPAA compliance is a costly and time consuming process for healthcare organizations.

With the amount of focus and effort directed towards HIPAA compliance, risk and compliance professionals at healthcare organizations can rest assured their patients' data is protected from hackers and data theft, r

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Company reputation and the fallout from reputational damage are the number one strategic risk for large companies, according to a global survey, Exploring Strategic Risk, released by Deloitte. Overall, progress on strategic risk management is evident, though most executives admit that their programs do not support their business strategy well enough.

Reputational risk was ranked third among strategic risk concerns three years ago, according to companies surveyed. Also back in 2010, brand and econ

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My view of the role of the risk profession differs to those who designed and promote the Three Lines of Defence (3LOD) model (at least how it has been interpreted by some).  As with my musings on whether there should be separate risk and audit committees for Boards, (see Blog, 22/11/09 “Should Audit and Risk Committees be Separate?”  and Risk e-Views - Risk Leadership: Should a Board have a Risk Committee? 22/09/12)  I feel risk professionals in organisations need to be advisors and confidants o

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Is Agile for Dummies?

I have said more than once that the IT industry has much to be blamed for in terms of poor project delivery.  I wrote a discussion paper on Project Risk Management where I lead off with “Why could we land a man on the moon in 1969 yet in 2013 we struggle to get a moderate sized IT project delivered successfully? – An acceptance of mediocrity?”

I recently read “Agile for Dummies”published by IBM and authored by Scott W. Ambler and Matthew Holitza, which is about mastering Agile, a project manageme

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8028226683?profile=originalThere is always a lot of buzz about “risk appetite statements” and “risk tolerance.”  In theory, these sound like a natural launching point for ERM Programs – how can risk managers manage risks without a known goal of what they should be managing towards?

However, the problem with risk appetite is that it is not actionable, thus organizations see very little impact from having perfectly established risk appetite statements that far too many risk managers spend months developing..  As a result, se

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Kenya is a good business hub

Kenya is a business hub country located in East Africa. Kenya is a good place for entrepreneurs to think of investing in 2014-2015 and staring their ventures for profit maximization. There are several reasons why you should choose Kenya as your next investment destination. one of the most important is that, its a growing economy. However, before making decisions to invest in Kenya, it is important to explore the top small business ideas/opportunities in the developing country.
1. Real Estate Busi

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It’s all over the news. Around the world, banks are closing branches and more plan to follow suit. Their reasoning? “Digital is taking over”. However, this presents its own set of challenges. How do banks address them so that they reduce their number of branches, while still delivering compelling service offerings?

This isn’t a recent phenomenon. According to research conducted last year by Nottingham University, the UK’s branch network has shrunk by 40 percent in the last 20 years. Reasons have

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Cryptocurrencies are an emerging method and protocol serving to facilitate the exchange of values between human beings.  These new virtualized valuation systems can link back to the material through fiat currencies.  Value is always relative.  A re-valuation of a cryptocurrency represents a devaluation of the material and an increase in value of the individual.  These cryptocurrencies provide us with great new pier-to-pier tools and protocols for transparency, privacy, security and real time ris

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