My stats guru colleague Dr Andrew Pratley and I are on the move to tackle Quantifornication, the plucking of numbers out of thin air. Here is the fourth in a series we are co-writing.
We all have a tendency to overestimate our knowledge. And as a result, we believe that we know things which we don't. Our understanding of what is random is even worse – hence Nassim Taleb’s book Fooled by Randomness. It's the overconfidence that is the problem. It causes us to jump to the wrong answer and believe i



